Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Spuro
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Spuro »

plasmabeam wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:10 pm
LSD Jellyfish wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 9:20 pm Godzilla vs. Kong's Japanese release date is going to be delayed. It was going to be released in a few weeks, but due to corona spiking in Japan (wouldn't it have been nice if we had vaccines...). They've declared states of emergency throughout Japan in big areas (Osaka, Tokyo etc...). Now it'll get pushed back. I hope it sort of has the effect of "hey people want to see a movie" after being stuck in doors for weeks of not doing much.

It's important because I could see it adding another 10 million to GvK's worldwide revenue and I feel like this is the Godzilla film to do well in Japan.
I think you're right. People are going to badly want to see something escapist and GvK will be that movie.

It's funny though. Japan: "State of Emergency!" Also Japan: "Let the Olympics begin!"
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Cookson »

It’ll be awkward if the blu ray here in the states is released before it’s Japan theatrical release. Die hard fans in Japan might just import it.

Hoping the worldwide box office is around 420m after this weekend.
Last edited by Cookson on Fri Apr 30, 2021 3:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Cookson »

It’s projected to make 3.8m this weekend. That would be a extremely good hold and makes GvK passing 100m domestically in play in the long run.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Kaijucifer »

Hoping it makes a solid 450 by the end of it's run at least. That would be incredible.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Xx_The_Masquerade_xX »

Mortal Kombat drops hard on its second week by 70/73%. Making only 6.2 million at the box office an a total of 34 million domestic in 10 days.

Godzilla vs. Kong (WB/Leg) 2,573 theaters (-103),/ 3-day: $2.74M (-36%)/ Total - $90.3M on week 5.

link - https://deadline.com/2021/05/mortal-kom ... 234748112/

Gvk will struggle to make that 100$ million mark domestic but it should pull it off.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by StreamOfKaijuness »

I’m glad that WB managed to pull off a box office win with Godzilla vs. Kong considering how the deck had been stacked against it after G:KotM. They released it at just the right time to make it the first event film that North American moviegoers flocked to in normal numbers since the pandemic lockdowns began, succeeding where Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984 had failed. Godzilla vs. Kong owns that triumphant role in box office history. What’s more, by being the only event in theaters upon release, WB was able to drop the first trailer just two months out and keep the marketing campaign short and light, allowing the film an unusually low threshold for box office profitability. I was definitely wrong about it being able to turn a profit in theaters under these circumstances.

Still, even though WB turned this film into a box office triumph on a pandemic curve, I think it’s a shame that they’ve settled for less when Godzilla vs. Kong really could have soared as high as G’14 and Kong: Skull Island or even higher in normal times.

Godzilla vs. Kong is sitting at an estimated $90m in North American ticket sales through this fifth weekend of play. All three of the previous Hollywood Godzilla films had done 94.7% to 96.5% of their total domestic business by the end of their fifth weekends, whereas both of the most recent Kong movies were 93% finished in domestic theaters after their fifth weekends.

Even if Godzilla vs. Kong holds up like the last two Kong movies from here, that still puts it on track to top out around $97m, not even matching the $110m in domestic ticket sales that G:KotM mustered two years ago. Put another way, Godzilla vs. Kong is selling less than half as many tickets in North America as Legendary’s first Godzilla ($200m in 2014) and it isn’t even matching the sequel’s ticket sales.

If it falls short of the $100m domestic mark, it will be the sixth Hollywood film to ever top $400m worldwide without topping $100m domestic after Terminator: Genisys, Warcraft, Ice Age: Collision Course, The Mummy (2017) and Alita: Battle Angel.

Some professional box office analysts like Scott Mendelson of Forbes have posited that Godzilla vs. Kong’s domestic business isn’t being muted by the pandemic at all, that it's performing as well in North America as it would have in non-pandemic circumstances. I totally disagree with that take. There are still lots of theaters in the US and Canada that haven’t reopened and those that have are still operating under capacity restrictions. Plus, the pandemic is still a strong incentive for would-be moviegoers to stay home, and the film’s availability to stream on HBO Max and ensuing high-quality piracy have only given interested people more reasons to stay home.

I believe that many more North American moviegoers would have turned out for Godzilla vs. Kong than they did for G:KotM if WB had saved it for a post-pandemic release. The premise of these two cinematic icons going toe-to-toe is more broadly appealing than anything G:KotM had to offer and the film is tighter and more crowdpleasing than any prior Hollywood Godzilla adaptation. I don’t believe for a second that Godzilla vs. Kong still would have done less North American business than G:KotM if it had opened in late 2021 or in 2022 whenever the pandemic is truly over. I believe that it could have matched Kong: Skull Island ($168m) if not Godzilla ($200m) in domestic ticket sales with a post-pandemic release but that’s just speculation at this point, because now we’ll never know. Maybe there actually would have been more North American audience demand for Godzilla vs. Kong than there was for G:KotM ($110m) but we’ll never know.

It’s not surprising that Legendary is in early talks with director Adam Wingard about following this up with a Kong 3 rather than a Godzilla 4. Nothing about Godzilla vs. Kong’s uniquely triumphant box office performance indicates that North American moviegoers are any hungrier for new Godzilla films now than they were two years ago. The Chinese market continues to be the one unqualified box office success story for all of Legendary’s Godzilla movies but there’s no practical reason for Legendary to renegotiate with Toho and gamble again with another new Godzilla movie in the hope of raking in Chinese money, not when Legendary can already do that with Kong. If Godzilla vs. Kong had been released after the pandemic and done at least as well as Kong: Skull Island in domestic ticket sales, thereby pushing its worldwide total into the ballpark of Godzilla ($529m) and K:SI ($558m) or beyond, then a Godzilla 4 would have been much more likely. I’ll still be surprised if Godzilla 4 happens at this point but I’ll certainly be delighted if Legendary follows through on their early talks for Kong 3. Although THR reports that Son of Kong is one of the titles that Legendary is considering for such a sequel, my guess is it would end up being called Kong: Hollow Earth.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by miguelnuva »

Right on time just as predicted.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by gottatalktothefake »

Mortal Kombat and DS ate massive amounts of shit oh my god

Added in 56 seconds:
430+ is guaranteed now right?
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Jermobooka »

gottatalktothefake wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:15 pm Mortal Kombat and DS ate massive amounts of shit oh my god

Added in 56 seconds:
430+ is guaranteed now right?
Jeebus, you’re incredibly competitive for absolutely no reason lol

It’s pretty obvious GvK is gonna have a better box office than both, but DS in particular should still be praised in its own right

DS is getting a great box office, fantastic critic/audience reviews, and setting records

Your “MV is the be-all-end-all!” mentality is pretty toxic :lol:
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by gottatalktothefake »

Jermobooka wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:20 pm
gottatalktothefake wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:15 pm Mortal Kombat and DS ate massive amounts of poop oh my god

Added in 56 seconds:
430+ is guaranteed now right?
Jeebus, you’re incredibly competitive for absolutely no reason lol

It’s pretty obvious GvK is gonna have a better box office than both, but DS in particular should still be praised in its own right

DS is getting a great box office, fantastic critic/audience reviews, and setting records

Your “MV is the be-all-end-all!” mentality is pretty toxic :lol:
Never seen demon slayer so I can’t comment, but I actually really enjoyed mortal kombat. I’m pointing out that a 70%+ drop is horrific.
GojiSquid wrote: Tue Oct 31, 2023 7:58 am TBF if a movie has a sex scene without a monster mash, then is it really a graveyard smash?

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Jermobooka »

gottatalktothefake wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:21 pm
Jermobooka wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:20 pm
gottatalktothefake wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 8:15 pm Mortal Kombat and DS ate massive amounts of poop oh my god

Added in 56 seconds:
430+ is guaranteed now right?
Jeebus, you’re incredibly competitive for absolutely no reason lol

It’s pretty obvious GvK is gonna have a better box office than both, but DS in particular should still be praised in its own right

DS is getting a great box office, fantastic critic/audience reviews, and setting records

Your “MV is the be-all-end-all!” mentality is pretty toxic :lol:
Never seen demon slayer so I can’t comment, but I actually really enjoyed mortal kombat. I’m pointing out that a 70%+ drop is horrific.
Ah, i get it.

Well in that case i agree. MK isn’t exactly having the best of times right now, especially critically.

Still super happy/glad for DS. Seeing the film for my favorite current anime succeed like this, in a pandemic with a lot of theaters closed, mind you, is pretty hype :P
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by obZen »

At this point I don’t see why GvK doesn’t stay in cinemas for at least another month.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by miguelnuva »

obZen wrote: Sun May 02, 2021 10:17 pm At this point I don’t see why GvK doesn’t stay in cinemas for at least another month.
I'd leave it there until the theaters stop showing it. That's one reason Avatar made so much money.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Cookson »

GvK will be in theaters longer than usual making the 100m domestic amount possible. WB might even fudge it there if needed.

Anyone saying GvK is playing normally are not credible at all.
Last edited by Cookson on Mon May 03, 2021 4:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by dillonking55 »

The wall of text is back lol. We'll definitely get another Legendary Godzilla film. GvK ignited interest for both Kong, Godzilla & the CU aspect of the franchise.

Legendary will probably keep the budget low compared to KotM's price tag, but we'll see a Godzilla 3 down the line.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Pkmatrix »

dillonking55 wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 6:28 am The wall of text is back lol. We'll definitely get another Legendary Godzilla film. GvK ignited interest for both Kong, Godzilla & the CU aspect of the franchise.

Legendary will probably keep the budget low compared to KotM's price tag, but we'll see a Godzilla 3 down the line.
Agreed. I think a Godzilla 3 in the $120M to $140M range is possible and very doable.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by yogi bareass »

We probably won't see another MV movie until 2045 because they will run from all the Marvel movies whose dates were revealed today.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by UltramanGoji »

yogi bareass wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 11:36 am We probably won't see another MV movie until 2045 because they will run from all the Marvel movies whose dates were revealed today.
90% of those dates were already known, it doesn't really change anything for other studios.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by yogi bareass »

UltramanGoji wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 12:32 pm
yogi bareass wrote: Mon May 03, 2021 11:36 am We probably won't see another MV movie until 2045 because they will run from all the Marvel movies whose dates were revealed today.
90% of those dates were already known, it doesn't really change anything for other studios.
I was half joking, But thanks for that. I didn't know they were already known.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by miguelnuva »

We'll be seeing Godzilla 4. Godzilla vs Kong is Kong 2 and Godzilla 3.
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