Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Cossegoji2000 »

Desghidorah wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:36 am
shadowgigan wrote: Tue Aug 24, 2021 7:11 pm I wonder how well merch did.
Got multiple friends working at different big retailers. That stuff was flying off the shelves. Top selling items for multiple months when it came to action figures.
Why do I have a feeling that this might've just been scalpers buying the entire shelf's worth of figures?

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Desghidorah »

Cossegoji2000 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:22 pm
Desghidorah wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:36 am
shadowgigan wrote: Tue Aug 24, 2021 7:11 pm I wonder how well merch did.
Got multiple friends working at different big retailers. That stuff was flying off the shelves. Top selling items for multiple months when it came to action figures.
Why do I have a feeling that this might've just been scalpers buying the entire shelf's worth of figures?
Well, sales a sale.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by shadowgigan »

Desghidorah wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:59 pm
Cossegoji2000 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:22 pm
Desghidorah wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:36 am

Got multiple friends working at different big retailers. That stuff was flying off the shelves. Top selling items for multiple months when it came to action figures.
Why do I have a feeling that this might've just been scalpers buying the entire shelf's worth of figures?
Well, sales a sale.
Either way it is evidence of high demand. At least theoretically, it should be.

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Cookson »

I’m starting to realize just how big Godzilla(and Kong) are in international territories. For instance, Shang Chi and Black Widow are huge domestically(in the Covid world) but don’t really touch Godzilla vs Kong internationally. It’s a very interesting thing to see.. obviously it’s a big help from China, but Godzilla and Kong have broken into that territory and is just as important as other areas.

They already cut the budget for GvsK to like 160, but if they can find a way to go down even further… say another 30m CONSISTENTLY that would be huge. Still not sure what the future holds for the Monsterverse.
Last edited by Cookson on Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by G1985 »

Cookson wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:23 am They already cut the budget for GvsK to like 160, but if they can find a way to go down even further… say another 30m CONSISTENTLY that would be huge. Still not sure what the future holds for the Monsterverse.
If the budgets have to go lower, then the future holds fewer Toho-licensed characters. G:KoTH had to pay additional licensing fees to use Rodan, Mothra, King Ghidorah, and to use Godzilla and Mothra's theme music. Take Godzilla out of the Monsterverse, and you cut costs but are left with Kong as the only bankable name up on the marquee.

Either that, or costs are cut in the SFX dept and we get "Godzilla's South Seas Adventures."

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by Giratina93 »

G1985 wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:07 pm
Cookson wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:23 am They already cut the budget for GvsK to like 160, but if they can find a way to go down even further… say another 30m CONSISTENTLY that would be huge. Still not sure what the future holds for the Monsterverse.
If the budgets have to go lower, then the future holds fewer Toho-licensed characters. G:KoTH had to pay additional licensing fees to use Rodan, Mothra, King Ghidorah, and to use Godzilla and Mothra's theme music. Take Godzilla out of the Monsterverse, and you cut costs but are left with Kong as the only bankable name up on the marquee.

Either that, or costs are cut in the SFX dept and we get "Godzilla's South Seas Adventures."
Or, don't hire such expensive big name actors, and that can drastically lower down the budget. Certain actors cost A LOT to make use of, and that can cause budgets to quickly balloon out of control. I know for On Stranger Tides, Depp being there costed 55 million dollars alone, which contributed a decent amount to the 400+ million that movie had, and while I don't know how much the likes of Charles Dance or Millie Bobby Brown cost, but while I get big name actors have drawing power to them, at the same time it doesn't help the budget when you gotta pay them so much...
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by miguelnuva »

Giratina93 wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 2:49 pm
G1985 wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 12:07 pm
Cookson wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:23 am They already cut the budget for GvsK to like 160, but if they can find a way to go down even further… say another 30m CONSISTENTLY that would be huge. Still not sure what the future holds for the Monsterverse.
If the budgets have to go lower, then the future holds fewer Toho-licensed characters. G:KoTH had to pay additional licensing fees to use Rodan, Mothra, King Ghidorah, and to use Godzilla and Mothra's theme music. Take Godzilla out of the Monsterverse, and you cut costs but are left with Kong as the only bankable name up on the marquee.

Either that, or costs are cut in the SFX dept and we get "Godzilla's South Seas Adventures."
Or, don't hire such expensive big name actors, and that can drastically lower down the budget. Certain actors cost A LOT to make use of, and that can cause budgets to quickly balloon out of control. I know for On Stranger Tides, Depp being there costed 55 million dollars alone, which contributed a decent amount to the 400+ million that movie had, and while I don't know how much the likes of Charles Dance or Millie Bobby Brown cost, but while I get big name actors have drawing power to them, at the same time it doesn't help the budget when you gotta pay them so much...
Skull island was the only film with big budget actors. The monsterverse looked fine with Godzilla vs Kong that don't necessarily have to lower the budget yet.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by StreamOfKaijuness »

Now that Godzilla vs. Kong has finished its worldwide theatrical run, we can see how it stacked up to its MonsterVerse predecessors.


NORTH AMERICA

Image

Image

At the domestic box office, Godzilla vs. Kong grossed:
-49.9% less than Godzilla
-40.2% less than Kong: Skull Island
-9% less than Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Godzilla vs. Kong is the lowest-grossing film of the MonsterVerse at the domestic box office. It barely crossed the $100m threshold and it didn’t even match the deeply underwhelming Godzilla: King of the Monsters ($110m), much less Kong: Skull Island ($168m) or Godzilla ($200m).

The one silver lining about Godzilla vs. Kong’s box office reception in North America compared to earlier films is that it held up in theaters ever so slightly better than the three prior Hollywood Godzilla flicks from 1998, 2014 and 2019.

Comparing the box office legs of the four Hollywood Godzilla movies is tricky because they opened on different days of the week and with different preview patterns. G’98 officially opened on the Wednesday before Memorial Day but it pulled in $4m in previews on the preceding Tuesday. G’14 technically opened on a Friday but it actually earned $9.3m (or 10% of its opening weekend figure) on the preceding Thursday evening. G:KotM likewise officially opened on a Friday after pulling $6.3m (a whopping 13% of its opening weekend figure) on Thursday. This year, GvsK opened on the Wednesday before Easter with no previews the day before.

For those reasons, the clearest way to directly compare their box office legs is to count preview days as their first days in theaters, calculate their first-week grosses from there, and then see how their final domestic totals compare to their initial 7-day totals, like so:

Image
  • Godzilla (1998) finished in North America with 1.83x its first-week gross.
  • Godzilla (2014) finished in North America with 1.77x its first-week gross.
  • Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2019) finished in North America with 1.82x its first-week gross.
  • Godzilla vs. Kong (2021) finished in North America with 1.90x its first-week gross.
That’s not a big improvement for GvsK but it is something, considering how each of the three prior Hollywood Godzilla films could only muster 1.77x-1.83x their first-week totals in domestic theaters.

Put another way, while G’98 was 54.4% finished in North America after its first week, G’14 was 56.1% finished and G:KotM was 54.6% finished, GvsK was only 52.5% finished in North American theaters after its first seven days. G’98 is no longer the Hollywood Godzilla movie with the strongest domestic box office staying power!

As a Hollywood Godzilla movie, that slight uptick in staying power for GvsK can be attributed to Kong’s inclusion, as both the 2005 King Kong remake (which finished with 2.82x its first-week haul) and 2017’s Kong: Skull Island (2.17x) had much stronger box office legs than any Hollywood Godzilla film. Conversely, as a Kong movie, the fact that GvsK (1.90x) didn’t hold up as well as the last two Kong films can be attributed to Godzilla’s inclusion. Kong flicks have more staying power with domestic moviegoers than Godzilla flicks. While GvsK played much more like a Godzilla flick in North America, with the lowest gross & fewest admissions of any Hollywood-produced Kong or Godzilla movie in the CGI era, it did hold up slightly better than the prior Hollywood Godzilla films.

Image


JAPAN

In Godzilla’s home country of Japan, Godzilla vs. Kong was likewise the smallest draw of Legendary’s Godzilla films and of the MonsterVerse. It sold 1.25 million tickets, which ranks it in 29th place of the 36 Godzilla movies that have played in Japanese theaters since 1954:

01. King Kong vs. Godzilla (1962) - 12.55 million admissions
02. Godzilla (1954) - 9.6 million admissions
03. Godzilla Raids Again (1955) - 8.34 million admissions
04. Mothra vs. Godzilla (1964) - 7.2 million admissions
05. Shin Godzilla (2016) - 5.69 million admissions
06. Ghidorah the Three-Headed Monster (1964) - 5.41 million admissions
07. Monster Zero (1965) - 5.13 million admissions
08. Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster (1966) - 4.21 million admissions
09. Godzilla vs. Mothra (1992) - 4.20 million admissions
10. Godzilla vs. Destroyer (1995) - 4 million admissions
11. Godzilla (1998) - 3.9 million admissions
12. Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla (1993) - 3.8 million admissions
13. Godzilla vs. Spacegodzilla (1994) - 3.4 million admissions
14. The Return of Godzilla (1984) - 3.2 million admissions
15. Godzilla vs. King Ghidorah (1991) - 2.7 million admissions
16. Destroy All Monsters (1968) - 2.5 million admissions
17. Son of Godzilla (1967) - 2.48 million admissions
18. Godzilla, Mothra and King Ghidorah: Giant Monsters All-Out Attack (2001) - 2.4 million admissions
19. Godzilla (2014) - 2.23 million admissions
20. Godzilla vs. Biollante (1989) - 2 million admissions
21. Godzilla 2000 (1999) - 2 million admissions
22. Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2019) - 1.95 million admissions
23. Godzilla vs. Gigan (1972) - 1.78 million admissions
24. Godzilla vs. Hedorah (1971) - 1.74 million admissions
25. Godzilla x Mechagodzilla (2002) - 1.70 million admissions
26. All Monsters Attack (1969) - 1.48 million admissions
27. Godzilla vs. Megaguirus (2000) - 1.35 million admissions
28. Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla (1974) - 1.33 million admissions
29. Godzilla vs. Kong (2021) - 1.25 million admissions
30. Godzilla: Tokyo SOS (2003) - 1.2 million admissions
31. Godzilla: Final Wars (2004) - 1 million admissions
32. Godzilla vs. Megalon (1973) - 980 thousand admissions
33. Terror of Mechagodzilla (1975) - 970 thousand admissions
34. Godzilla: Planet of the Monsters (2017) - 169 thousand admissions
35. Godzilla: The Planet Eater (2018) - 140 thousand admissions
36. Godzilla: City on the Edge of Battle (2018) - 93 thousand admissions

The original King Kong vs. Godzilla sold 11.2 million tickets in Japan during its 1962 release, making it the most-attended Godzilla film in Japanese moviegoing history even without counting its re-releases. Nearly 60 years later, Godzilla vs. Kong has only sold more tickets in Japan than Megalon, Terror of Mechagodzilla, Tokyo SOS, Final Wars and the anime films. It didn’t even match Kong: Skull Island’s 1.34 million admissions.

From Japan box office analyst Corpse at the World of KJ message board back on August 12, six weeks into GvsK’s Japanese release:
Not very good, clearly. I wasn't expecting it to do any better than the 2014 or 2019 Godzilla films, but this is still a noticeable decline and didn't come close. Kong himself hasn't been very popular at the box office in the market (much less than Godzilla), so adding him in likely had no positive impact whatsoever. It may have even been a deterrent for some.

And it's not due to the state of the market considering we've seen MANY franchise films come close to, match, or exceed their predecessors all year long. And HBO Max doesn't exist in Japan, so can't blame it either.

Anyway, I haven't tracked its run, but seeing how low its 6th weekend was, it's likely to wrap up its run shortly in a couple weeks and will likely finish at/or below 1.25 million admissions.

I don't have an Opening Weekend chart for this franchise since only a handful of films have opening weekend data available since it's so old, but Godzilla vs. Kong opened 20-30% below the last three films (King of the Monsters, Shin Godzilla, and Godzilla). So its opening weekend wasn't that bad, but it's been holding much worse.

And a very interesting stat: 2016's Shin Godzilla will end up outperforming the combined totals of all 3 recent Hollywood films (...).

CHINA

The Chinese releases have been unmitigated successes for every MonsterVerse entry to date and that’s truer than ever for Godzilla vs. Kong.

Image

Image

At the Chinese box office, Godzilla vs. Kong grossed:
+243% more than Godzilla
+12.1% more than Kong: Skull Island
+39.3% more than Godzilla: King of the Monsters

With a $188.7m total, it played as the Avengers of the MonsterVerse in China, outselling Legendary & WB’s prior Kong ($168.1m) and Godzilla films ($77.6m, $135.4m) the way it was meant to in North America when they plotted this cinematic universe endeavor back in 2015.


WORLDWIDE TOTAL

Image

Image

In total global box office, Godzilla vs. Kong grossed:
-11.6% less than Godzilla
-17.5% less than Kong: Skull Island
+21% more than Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Can you imagine if The Avengers had only pulled in half the domestic box office of the first Iron Man while coming up 11 percent short of it worldwide? That’s essentially what has happened with the MonsterVerse.

Godzilla vs. Kong’s +39% Chinese box office growth over Godzilla: King of the Monsters accounts for nearly two-thirds (65%) of GvsK’s +21% worldwide box office growth over G:KotM.

Even with that increase over G:KotM in China and several smaller territories, the fact that GvsK was the smallest draw of the MonsterVerse in North America is what really kneecapped its worldwide total, preventing it from breaking $500m or reaching the heights of G’14 or Kong: Skull Island.

If it had matched K:SI’s $168m North American total instead of topping out just over $100m, that would have pushed GvsK’s worldwide total to $535m, just over G’14 ($529m).

If GvsK had matched the $200m domestic total of G’14 instead of only doing half that business in North America, that would have brought its worldwide total to $567m, just over Skull Island ($566m).

And if Godzilla vs. Kong had succeeded in maximizing the audience appeal of cinema’s two most iconic giant monsters, if this crossover had actually outperformed its MonsterVerse predecessors in North America, Japan and everywhere else like it did in China (i.e. +12% more than the top MonsterVerse entry in each market), then Godzilla vs. Kong could have been the first non-Jurassic creature feature to ever top $600m worldwide in theatrical revenue. That did not happen.


Image


What do these box office results mean for the future? I wouldn’t count on another Godzilla movie from Legendary, at least not for the next several years. Domestic audience interest in their Godzilla movies has consistently dropped from one film to the next. In the cumulative international markets outside of North America and China, GvsK did better than G:KotM but still fell well short of G’14 and K:SI. All of that indicates that Legendary’s third Godzilla movie got a boost in international audience interest thanks to the inclusion of Kong. Likewise, with GvsK falling significantly short of K:SI outside of China, that suggests that being pitted against Godzilla may have meant a step down for Kong in terms of audience interest. A straightforward Kong 2 might have been a bigger hit with general audiences than Godzilla vs. Kong.

That’s why it makes sense that Legendary wants Adam Wingard to direct another Kong movie that would explore the Hollow Earth where Kong now rules. The MonsterVerse is most likely to continue in that way, one film production at a time, rather than the back-to-back production overlap that Legendary rushed into with their last two entries. A Kong 3 from Legendary (whether it’s called Son of Kong or Kong: Hollow Earth or something else) is the most likely outcome of Godzilla vs. Kong’s box office reception. If that movie does get made, it still probably won’t be released until 2025, like the 4-year gap between K:SI and GvsK, as Wingard already has a Thundercats film and a remake of Face/Off on his agenda. Depending on how that hypothetical Kong 3 performs, maybe Legendary & WB will consider taking another run at Godzilla after that, if it seems like there’s audience demand for the return of their decade-old take on the Big G by that time. That would all be in the far-off future, several years from now. If we’re going to get another new live-action Godzilla film in the meantime, it would surely be produced by Toho and not Hollywood.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

Post by miguelnuva »

StreamOfKaijuness wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:57 pm Now that Godzilla vs. Kong has finished its worldwide theatrical run, we can see how it stacked up to its MonsterVerse predecessors.


NORTH AMERICA

Image

Image

At the domestic box office, Godzilla vs. Kong grossed:
-49.9% less than Godzilla
-40.2% less than Kong: Skull Island
-9% less than Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Godzilla vs. Kong is the lowest-grossing film of the MonsterVerse at the domestic box office. It barely crossed the $100m threshold and it didn’t even match the deeply underwhelming Godzilla: King of the Monsters ($110m), much less Kong: Skull Island ($168m) or Godzilla ($200m).

The one silver lining about Godzilla vs. Kong’s box office reception in North America compared to earlier films is that it held up in theaters ever so slightly better than the three prior Hollywood Godzilla flicks from 1998, 2014 and 2019.

Comparing the box office legs of the four Hollywood Godzilla movies is tricky because they opened on different days of the week and with different preview patterns. G’98 officially opened on the Wednesday before Memorial Day but it pulled in $4m in previews on the preceding Tuesday. G’14 technically opened on a Friday but it actually earned $9.3m (or 10% of its opening weekend figure) on the preceding Thursday evening. G:KotM likewise officially opened on a Friday after pulling $6.3m (a whopping 13% of its opening weekend figure) on Thursday. This year, GvsK opened on the Wednesday before Easter with no previews the day before.

For those reasons, the clearest way to directly compare their box office legs is to count preview days as their first days in theaters, calculate their first-week grosses from there, and then see how their final domestic totals compare to their initial 7-day totals, like so:

Image
  • Godzilla (1998) finished in North America with 1.83x its first-week gross.
  • Godzilla (2014) finished in North America with 1.77x its first-week gross.
  • Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2019) finished in North America with 1.82x its first-week gross.
  • Godzilla vs. Kong (2021) finished in North America with 1.90x its first-week gross.
That’s not a big improvement for GvsK but it is something, considering how each of the three prior Hollywood Godzilla films could only muster 1.77x-1.83x their first-week totals in domestic theaters.

Put another way, while G’98 was 54.4% finished in North America after its first week, G’14 was 56.1% finished and G:KotM was 54.6% finished, GvsK was only 52.5% finished in North American theaters after its first seven days. G’98 is no longer the Hollywood Godzilla movie with the strongest domestic box office staying power!

As a Hollywood Godzilla movie, that slight uptick in staying power for GvsK can be attributed to Kong’s inclusion, as both the 2005 King Kong remake (which finished with 2.82x its first-week haul) and 2017’s Kong: Skull Island (2.17x) had much stronger box office legs than any Hollywood Godzilla film. Conversely, as a Kong movie, the fact that GvsK (1.90x) didn’t hold up as well as the last two Kong films can be attributed to Godzilla’s inclusion. Kong flicks have more staying power with domestic moviegoers than Godzilla flicks. While GvsK played much more like a Godzilla flick in North America, with the lowest gross & fewest admissions of any Hollywood-produced Kong or Godzilla movie in the CGI era, it did hold up slightly better than the prior Hollywood Godzilla films.

Image


JAPAN

In Godzilla’s home country of Japan, Godzilla vs. Kong was likewise the smallest draw of Legendary’s Godzilla films and of the MonsterVerse. It sold 1.25 million tickets, which ranks it in 29th place of the 36 Godzilla movies that have played in Japanese theaters since 1954:

01. King Kong vs. Godzilla (1962) - 12.55 million admissions
02. Godzilla (1954) - 9.6 million admissions
03. Godzilla Raids Again (1955) - 8.34 million admissions
04. Mothra vs. Godzilla (1964) - 7.2 million admissions
05. Shin Godzilla (2016) - 5.69 million admissions
06. Ghidorah the Three-Headed Monster (1964) - 5.41 million admissions
07. Monster Zero (1965) - 5.13 million admissions
08. Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster (1966) - 4.21 million admissions
09. Godzilla vs. Mothra (1992) - 4.20 million admissions
10. Godzilla vs. Destroyer (1995) - 4 million admissions
11. Godzilla (1998) - 3.9 million admissions
12. Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla (1993) - 3.8 million admissions
13. Godzilla vs. Spacegodzilla (1994) - 3.4 million admissions
14. The Return of Godzilla (1984) - 3.2 million admissions
15. Godzilla vs. King Ghidorah (1991) - 2.7 million admissions
16. Destroy All Monsters (1968) - 2.5 million admissions
17. Son of Godzilla (1967) - 2.48 million admissions
18. Godzilla, Mothra and King Ghidorah: Giant Monsters All-Out Attack (2001) - 2.4 million admissions
19. Godzilla (2014) - 2.23 million admissions
20. Godzilla vs. Biollante (1989) - 2 million admissions
21. Godzilla 2000 (1999) - 2 million admissions
22. Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2019) - 1.95 million admissions
23. Godzilla vs. Gigan (1972) - 1.78 million admissions
24. Godzilla vs. Hedorah (1971) - 1.74 million admissions
25. Godzilla x Mechagodzilla (2002) - 1.70 million admissions
26. All Monsters Attack (1969) - 1.48 million admissions
27. Godzilla vs. Megaguirus (2000) - 1.35 million admissions
28. Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla (1974) - 1.33 million admissions
29. Godzilla vs. Kong (2021) - 1.25 million admissions
30. Godzilla: Tokyo SOS (2003) - 1.2 million admissions
31. Godzilla: Final Wars (2004) - 1 million admissions
32. Godzilla vs. Megalon (1973) - 980 thousand admissions
33. Terror of Mechagodzilla (1975) - 970 thousand admissions
34. Godzilla: Planet of the Monsters (2017) - 169 thousand admissions
35. Godzilla: The Planet Eater (2018) - 140 thousand admissions
36. Godzilla: City on the Edge of Battle (2018) - 93 thousand admissions

The original King Kong vs. Godzilla sold 11.2 million tickets in Japan during its 1962 release, making it the most-attended Godzilla film in Japanese moviegoing history even without counting its re-releases. Nearly 60 years later, Godzilla vs. Kong has only sold more tickets in Japan than Megalon, Terror of Mechagodzilla, Tokyo SOS, Final Wars and the anime films. It didn’t even match Kong: Skull Island’s 1.34 million admissions.

From Japan box office analyst Corpse at the World of KJ message board back on August 12, six weeks into GvsK’s Japanese release:
Not very good, clearly. I wasn't expecting it to do any better than the 2014 or 2019 Godzilla films, but this is still a noticeable decline and didn't come close. Kong himself hasn't been very popular at the box office in the market (much less than Godzilla), so adding him in likely had no positive impact whatsoever. It may have even been a deterrent for some.

And it's not due to the state of the market considering we've seen MANY franchise films come close to, match, or exceed their predecessors all year long. And HBO Max doesn't exist in Japan, so can't blame it either.

Anyway, I haven't tracked its run, but seeing how low its 6th weekend was, it's likely to wrap up its run shortly in a couple weeks and will likely finish at/or below 1.25 million admissions.

I don't have an Opening Weekend chart for this franchise since only a handful of films have opening weekend data available since it's so old, but Godzilla vs. Kong opened 20-30% below the last three films (King of the Monsters, Shin Godzilla, and Godzilla). So its opening weekend wasn't that bad, but it's been holding much worse.

And a very interesting stat: 2016's Shin Godzilla will end up outperforming the combined totals of all 3 recent Hollywood films (...).

CHINA

The Chinese releases have been unmitigated successes for every MonsterVerse entry to date and that’s truer than ever for Godzilla vs. Kong.

Image

Image

At the Chinese box office, Godzilla vs. Kong grossed:
+243% more than Godzilla
+12.1% more than Kong: Skull Island
+39.3% more than Godzilla: King of the Monsters

With a $188.7m total, it played as the Avengers of the MonsterVerse in China, outselling Legendary & WB’s prior Kong ($168.1m) and Godzilla films ($77.6m, $135.4m) the way it was meant to in North America when they plotted this cinematic universe endeavor back in 2015.


WORLDWIDE TOTAL

Image

Image

In total global box office, Godzilla vs. Kong grossed:
-11.6% less than Godzilla
-17.5% less than Kong: Skull Island
+21% more than Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Can you imagine if The Avengers had only pulled in half the domestic box office of the first Iron Man while coming up 11 percent short of it worldwide? That’s essentially what has happened with the MonsterVerse.

Godzilla vs. Kong’s +39% Chinese box office growth over Godzilla: King of the Monsters accounts for nearly two-thirds (65%) of GvsK’s +21% worldwide box office growth over G:KotM.

Even with that increase over G:KotM in China and several smaller territories, the fact that GvsK was the smallest draw of the MonsterVerse in North America is what really kneecapped its worldwide total, preventing it from breaking $500m or reaching the heights of G’14 or Kong: Skull Island.

If it had matched K:SI’s $168m North American total instead of topping out just over $100m, that would have pushed GvsK’s worldwide total to $535m, just over G’14 ($529m).

If GvsK had matched the $200m domestic total of G’14 instead of only doing half that business in North America, that would have brought its worldwide total to $567m, just over Skull Island ($566m).

And if Godzilla vs. Kong had succeeded in maximizing the audience appeal of cinema’s two most iconic giant monsters, if this crossover had actually outperformed its MonsterVerse predecessors in North America, Japan and everywhere else like it did in China (i.e. +12% more than the top MonsterVerse entry in each market), then Godzilla vs. Kong could have been the first non-Jurassic creature feature to ever top $600m worldwide in theatrical revenue. That did not happen.


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What do these box office results mean for the future? I wouldn’t count on another Godzilla movie from Legendary, at least not for the next several years. Domestic audience interest in their Godzilla movies has consistently dropped from one film to the next. In the cumulative international markets outside of North America and China, GvsK did better than G:KotM but still fell well short of G’14 and K:SI. All of that indicates that Legendary’s third Godzilla movie got a boost in international audience interest thanks to the inclusion of Kong. Likewise, with GvsK falling significantly short of K:SI outside of China, that suggests that being pitted against Godzilla may have meant a step down for Kong in terms of audience interest. A straightforward Kong 2 might have been a bigger hit with general audiences than Godzilla vs. Kong.

That’s why it makes sense that Legendary wants Adam Wingard to direct another Kong movie that would explore the Hollow Earth where Kong now rules. The MonsterVerse is most likely to continue in that way, one film production at a time, rather than the back-to-back production overlap that Legendary rushed into with their last two entries. A Kong 3 from Legendary (whether it’s called Son of Kong or Kong: Hollow Earth or something else) is the most likely outcome of Godzilla vs. Kong’s box office reception. If that movie does get made, it still probably won’t be released until 2025, like the 4-year gap between K:SI and GvsK, as Wingard already has a Thundercats film and a remake of Face/Off on his agenda. Depending on how that hypothetical Kong 3 performs, maybe Legendary & WB will consider taking another run at Godzilla after that, if it seems like there’s audience demand for the return of their decade-old take on the Big G by that time. That would all be in the far-off future, several years from now. If we’re going to get another new live-action Godzilla film in the meantime, it would surely be produced by Toho and not Hollywood.
You wrote this big intelligent post and then made yourself look silly for not mentioning HBO Max or the Damn Padnemic we where in.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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^My thoughts exactly, that context is crucial. The movie did really well all things considered.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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A few months ago I was inclined to agree that the pandemic would mute Godzilla vs. Kong's domestic box office performance. I didn't see it in a theater myself, I caught it on HBO Max, but I'm just one person. Americans by and large have demonstrated that they are eager to return to public life including to movie theaters, which people have been doing in normal-sized numbers ever since GvsK's post-vaccine release.

There's been A Quiet Place: Part II, which opened to $47m compared to A Quiet Place's $50m and then finished with 85% of its predecessor's total, which is totally normal for a high-profile horror sequel.

F9: The Fast Saga has grossed $172m, or -23% less in North America than 2017's The Fate of the Furious ($226m), which itself had grossed -36% less than 2015's franchise-high Furious 7 ($353m). That's a normal downward trajectory for that action franchise.

Despite being available at a premium price for Disney+ subscribers, Black Widow has earned $183m at the domestic box office, right in the same ballpark as Captain America: The First Avenger ($176m), Ant-Man ($180m) and Thor ($181m). Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings has grossed $176m domestic so far and that's just through its third weekend.

The pandemic isn't over but Americans have certainly returned to movie theaters.

Godzilla: King of the Monsters grossed $110m domestic in 2019. Godzilla vs. Kong grossed $100m domestic in 2021. That's a totally normal -9% drop for a threequel to a fan-targeted Godzilla sequel. We can blame that -9% drop on the pandemic and HBO Max and anything else but playing the blame game isn't going to make a Godzilla 4 happen and neither will this consistently shrinking audience demand for Legendary's Godzilla movies. Let's just hope that reported Kong 3 actually happens.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Black Widow had horrible legs for a Marvel Movie. If the theater were truly back why is Godzilla vs Kong the second highest grossing film other than F9.

If the movie theaters were all open and everything was normal would Godzilla vs Kong really have outgrossed Black widow. Even Shang Chi is slowing down now and will finish 100m short of GvsK.

GvsK did enough for Legendary and the majority to be happy so where going to get Godzilla 4 and Kong 3 eventually even though I do think the Monsterverse is coming to an end.

I've said before you put a lot of work into these posts and you say the truth even when it's not popular Stream but this is a completely different scenario.

Godzilla vs Kong made a profit and was likely by the GA.

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Another thing to tell you had poor Black Widow is doing Scarborough is pissed because she thinks the movie would have made 1B and Disney cut the legs of the film off.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Marvel and F&F films have almost always done better than Godzilla, no surprise there. Plus GvsK still beat KOTM globally. There's no reason to see it as a failure, though I do agree that another solo Kong film is more likely as the next installment.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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StreamOfKaijuness wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 3:57 pm What do these box office results mean for the future? I wouldn’t count on another Godzilla movie from Legendary, at least not for the next several years. Domestic audience interest in their Godzilla movies has consistently dropped from one film to the next. In the cumulative international markets outside of North America and China, GvsK did better than G:KotM but still fell well short of G’14 and K:SI. All of that indicates that Legendary’s third Godzilla movie got a boost in international audience interest thanks to the inclusion of Kong. Likewise, with GvsK falling significantly short of K:SI outside of China, that suggests that being pitted against Godzilla may have meant a step down for Kong in terms of audience interest. A straightforward Kong 2 might have been a bigger hit with general audiences than Godzilla vs. Kong....

....That’s why it makes sense that Legendary wants Adam Wingard to direct another Kong movie that would explore the Hollow Earth where Kong now rules. The MonsterVerse is most likely to continue in that way, one film production at a time, rather than the back-to-back production overlap that Legendary rushed into with their last two entries. A Kong 3 from Legendary (whether it’s called Son of Kong or Kong: Hollow Earth or something else) is the most likely outcome of Godzilla vs. Kong’s box office reception. If that movie does get made, it still probably won’t be released until 2025, like the 4-year gap between K:SI and GvsK, as Wingard already has a Thundercats film and a remake of Face/Off on his agenda. Depending on how that hypothetical Kong 3 performs, maybe Legendary & WB will consider taking another run at Godzilla after that, if it seems like there’s audience demand for the return of their decade-old take on the Big G by that time. That would all be in the far-off future, several years from now. If we’re going to get another new live-action Godzilla film in the meantime, it would surely be produced by Toho and not Hollywood.
Sobering but fascinating write-up. Thank you for the research!

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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Scarlett Johansson’s lawsuit against Disney is a righteous symbolic gesture against day-and-date theatrical/streaming dual releases, and that lawsuit is destined to be settled out of court. Black Widow was never going to be a billion-dollar hit.

Black Widow’s 2.28x opening weekend-to-domestic total multiplier is right in the same range as Captain America: Civil War (2.27x) and Iron Man 3 (2.34x). It makes sense that Black Widow would draw a total domestic audience like an MCU franchise-starter but with people turning out in more frontloaded numbers like an MCU threequel, as Scarlett Johansson’s portrayal of Black Widow isn’t new to audiences.

Worldwide, Black Widow and Shang-Chi haven’t played in China, whereas Godzilla vs. Kong earned 40% of its worldwide total in China. That’s the only reason why GvsK is currently ahead of the two latest Marvel movies at the worldwide box office. GvsK topped G:KotM worldwide but it didn’t come close to G’14 or K:SI.

In China, Godzilla vs. Kong outgrossed every MonsterVerse entry to date. Meanwhile, it played exactly like Godzilla 3 in North America, and as I noted previously, its first week-to-domestic total multiplier was (slightly) stronger than that of any previous Hollywood Godzilla adaptation. Neither Godzilla vs. Kong nor Black Widow have demonstrated abnormal domestic box office staying power, so what exactly is there to blame on the pandemic about any of that? American moviegoers are behaving like American moviegoers this year even with the pandemic still raging.

The next MonsterVerse movie, if it happens, is going to be that reported Kong 3, whether it’s called Son of Kong or Kong: Hollow Earth or something else, whether Adam Wingard directs it or just produces it. There’s not going to be another Godzilla movie from Legendary & WB before that. There might be a Godzilla 4 in the future but not before that Hollow Earth movie. They got ahead of themselves when they started shooting GvsK before G:KotM even opened and they’re not going to make that mistake again. Let’s just hope that Kong 3 happens, that it’s good and that it’s a hit with audiences, because that is the next potential step in the cinematic MonsterVerse. Godzilla 4 might happen one day but it would be much further off. The next live-action Godzilla movie on the horizon is much more likely to be produced by Toho.
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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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miguelnuva wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:47 pm GvsK did enough for Legendary and the majority to be happy so where going to get Godzilla 4 and Kong 3 eventually even though I do think the Monsterverse is coming to an end.
Wait, why do you think so? Didn't you recently post tidbits such as "Kong sequel is almost confirmed" and "MV Godzilla's Netflix animation series is rumored" that you heard from your sources?

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Re: Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

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vastatosaurus wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:43 pm
miguelnuva wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:47 pm GvsK did enough for Legendary and the majority to be happy so where going to get Godzilla 4 and Kong 3 eventually even though I do think the Monsterverse is coming to an end.
Wait, why do you think so? Didn't you recently post tidbits such as "Kong sequel is almost confirmed" and "MV Godzilla's Netflix animation series is rumored" that you heard from your sources?
I think so because another Kong film, a Godzilla film and then a finale film where they are together again seems like a strong finish.
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