Official Box Office Discussion Thread

[GodzillaFan1990's]

Another factor is also probably Lightyear being an obvious cash grab and people probably feeling Toy Story has run its course just like those said for Jurassic World: Dominion.

Added in 1 minute 44 seconds:
Lol wait until DC League of Super-Pets does better then Lightyear.

[LegendZilla]

I think that this decade is gonna be a downward spiral for Disney in terms of box office. Kinda like in the 80's.

[GodzillaFan1990's]

I think that this decade is gonna be a downward spiral for Disney in terms of box office. Kinda like in the 80's.

I really hope that is the case especially with the MCU movies.

Disney has dominated for far too long.

[Legion1979]

I think that this decade is gonna be a downward spiral for Disney in terms of box office. Kinda like in the 80's.

I really hope that is the case especially with the MCU movies.

Disney has dominated for far too long.

So the solution to that is for all their movies, especially the MCU, to die of box office failure?

Why do nerds wish death on everything they don't like?

[GodzillaFan1990's]

Thor: Love and Thunder comes out this week.

Without a doubt is going to make a billion. Most likely do better then Doctor Strange 2 which of course wasn't a flop by any means. Helps being that Thor is one of the original Avengers and people especially loved Ragnarok.

[Chrispy_G]

I think that this decade is gonna be a downward spiral for Disney in terms of box office. Kinda like in the 80's.

It seems like it may be looking that way, and there are some other pop culture/cultural/political factors that indicate that perhaps the 20s will end up being a decade similar to the 80s

Thor: Love and Thunder comes out this week.

Without a doubt is going to make a billion. Most likely do better then Doctor Strange 2 which of course wasn't a flop by any means. Helps being that Thor is one of the original Avengers and people especially loved Ragnarok.

I have serious doubts about that.

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office ... 235058402/

One of the reasons why Thor: Love and Thunder is pacing behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is because that film was working off the whole Spider-Man multiverse and Illuminati spoiler heat. As of last Friday, Thor: Love and Thunder presales were trailing behind Doctor Strange 2‘s by 40%. Doctor Strange 2 had banked $49M in advance ticket sales a week before opening, a number which rose to $85M by its Thursday preview night before posting a 3-day of $187.4M. Thor 4‘s ticket sales are already ahead of Top Gun: Maverick, The Batman and Jurassic World Dominion at the same point in time before their opening Friday.

Pre-sales being ahead of Top Gun, Batman, and Jurassic World at the same point is a good factor. However, Marvel films are somewhat consistent at being frontloaded by the fanboy factor.

Since the lockdowns, in North America the average 2nd weekend drop across the 5 Marvel films released has been over 63%...Shang-Chi was the only one with a LESS than 60% 2nd weekend drop.

Doctor Strange launched with $187M domestic and $432M worldwide and did not reach $1 Billion. Right now, they are calling for basically $150M Dom/$300M WW for Thor: Love and Thunder. If Thor opens that much lower than Doctor Strange, it needs much stronger legs in order to be carried to a $1 Billion total.

Doctor Strange was the summer launch and had a completely wide-open market to dominate for a few weeks before anything close to competition came out. Right now, big films have consistently been releasing for more than 2 months, Thor isn't going to get to be the same kind of big fish in a small pond.

However, Thor is the last truly big global blockbuster of the summer (DC Superpets might do well but I doubt it is on THAT level) so it might be able to coast to a higher number even if it doesn't open as large as Doctor Strange. That's a bit of a longshot though.

[LegendZilla]

It seems like it may be looking that way, and there are some other pop culture/cultural/political factors that indicate that perhaps the 20s will end up being a decade similar to the 80s

Would you care to specify how? Also, I frankly won't be surprised if Avatar 2 tanks at the box office.

[Chrispy_G]

It seems like it may be looking that way, and there are some other pop culture/cultural/political factors that indicate that perhaps the 20s will end up being a decade similar to the 80s

Would you care to specify how? Also, I frankly won't be surprised if Avatar 2 tanks at the box office.

I feel like it would derail the thread and get too far away from film and into culture and politics.

But a specific movie angle is Disney was arguably at their weakest in the 80s and may head that way in the 20s.

The "break up" between Hollywood and China has some pundits think that China will start to become the big bad of more Hollywood movies the way the Russians always were in the 80s. On another level, demonizing Russians might become very "in style" again. In the end it may lead to many more "pro-america/patriotic" movies being big hits...like in the 80s. Top Gun Maverick is a bit of an example of this already.

I think that unless an anti-Disney sentiment comes into play...everyone, including the doubters, will still turn up to see Avatar in December.

More than ever audiences have been groomed to pick a big blockbuster over Christmas holidays. Titanic, Lord of the Rings, I am Legend, Avatar, Star Wars, Aquaman, Spider-Man: No Way Home...the big December blockbuster is a corner in the calendar and Avatar: The Way of Water is that de facto choice this year.

It might not be nearly as much of a hit as the first, but it has every opportunity to be huge in terms of being a big film at a great spot on the schedule.

[LegendZilla]

^Out-right vilification of people based on their nationality won't fly in the 21st century.

[Chrispy_G]

^Out-right vilification of people based on their nationality won't fly in the 21st century.

You wouldn't think so, but the way Russians and Russia were demonized over the Ukraine events does give me some pause.

At least when most blamed China for "the virus" it was in the realm of claiming the CCP was to blame and not the people at large.

I don't think we will see "demonizing other people" come into style so much as we may see a return to being more "pro-America"

Top Gun Maverick never named "the enemy" in the film...but did not hesitate to have Tom Cruise giving speeches in front of US Flags and glorifying members of the US military as elite heroes and "the best of the best" without an ounce of cynicism...and the Box Office turnout speaks for itself.

If you think many studios aren't looking at that film and aren't prepared to take away the most superficial of lessons...then I suggest reviewing all of the hit films of the last 30 years and how Hollywood never hesitated to jump on a trend.

[LegendZilla]

^In these times, a ton of people would take issue with glorification of the America's military, but how is it any different than literally any other country doing it?

[Chrispy_G]

^In these times, a ton of people would take issue with glorification of the America's military, but how is it any different than literally any other country doing it?

I don't have a problem with ANY country being patriotic or having patriotic media. US or otherwise. I actually think patriotism is a great thing.

[Legion1979]

We're having a difficult enough time with people committing hate crimes against the Chinese in this country thanks to COVID and bullshit vomited out by the last president.

We definitely don't need that entire country being depicted as the bad guy in all American media going forward. I think we should be better than that.

[Chrispy_G]

We're having a difficult enough time with people committing hate crimes against the Chinese in this country thanks to COVID and bullshit vomited out by the last president.

We definitely don't need that entire country being depicted as the bad guy in all American media going forward. I think we should be better than that.

I'm not advocating for that at all. The CCP is the problem, not the Chinese people. Still, plenty won't think about or care about the differences, and some pundits think that since China has started to damage Hollywood's pocket book by being much more restrictive on which US Films get shown there, so as a result Hollywood might start wanting to make China the bad guy as a petty reaction.

Again, I'm not advocating for any country being the 'big bad' of the decade, just saying some people think we might get going into that direction in terms of the way Hollywood portrays them.

Back on topic.

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office ... 235060300/

Doctor Strange MoM Thursday Previews - $36M
Thor: Love and Thunder Thursday Previews - $29M

[Chrispy_G]

Breakdown of Doctor Strange vs Thor at our location
Multiverse of Madness Thursday sales - 877
MoM Friday sales - 1014

Love and Thunder Thursday sales - 457
Love and Thunder Friday sales - 685

MoM Thursday+Friday - 1891 tickets
L+T Thursday+Friday - 1142 tickets

We are just one location...but coming close to Doctor Strange's numbers and coming close to $1 Billion seems completely out of the question unless it has exceptional legs.

[Legion1979]

Man, your really getting off on playing attention to Disney movie box office, aren't you?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Doctor Strange have a lot less competition when it first came out? There are several movies Thor is in direct competition with, but even if it was just Thor vs Minions, that would be enough to affect its BO. People are crazy for those stupid, yellow little shits.

[Chrispy_G]

Man, your really getting off on playing attention to Disney movie box office

Movie theater manager, so a lot of my job requires I pay attention, plus it has interested me since I was 14.

[GodzillaFan1990's]

Think the reason Doctor Strange 2 hadn't reached a billion was due to being banned in countries for LGBT+ representation as well as not showing in Russia.

Assuming Thor 4 has the same, that same might go for that as well.

[Chrispy_G]

And to your point. Doctor Strange did have far less competition. It was a much higher percentage of total ticket sales when it came out. That makes the fact that it opened with $450M yet failed to hit $1 Billion even more shocking.

It had all of the big, front loaded numbers regardless of where it was banned or not...it had a huge opening. It just didn't have the legs.

Thor isn't going to have as huge of an opening, but with the end of July and August being fairly weak, it should not drop off as dramatically. It still all depends on word of mouth, anecdotally at my location, it's mixed. Even some of our employees who love all things Marvel really weren't digging it.

[GodzillaFan1990's]

No...

C-Can it be? Are people finally getting tired of Marvel!?

Pigs are flying!!!!