Godzilla vs Kong: the Box Office Thread - Predictions, Tracking, etc

[Pkmatrix]

Well Mulan is going straight to vod for $30. I think it’s a pretty good possibility something similar could happen with GvsKong but on hbo Max.

Now trust me.. I get that GvsKong is made for theaters. But they could potentially save a ton of money not advertising for the box office

Yeah, I saw. The cat's really out of the bag now.

I agree: this is a movie I very much WANT to see in theaters. I LIKE THEATERS. But the writing is on the wall, and there's little use in denying it.

Well Mulan is going straight to vod for $30. I think it’s a pretty good possibility something similar could happen with GvsKong but on hbo Max.

Now trust me.. I get that GvsKong is made for theaters. But they could potentially save a ton of money not advertising for the box office

And potentially lose a metric assload because hbo Max isn't available on a couple of the most common streaming devices.

HBO Max has over 36 Million subscribers. If they were to offer it for the same price as Disney is planning to offer Mulan, they would need around 6.5 Million rentals on HBO Max to hit $200 Million. For comparison, they would probably need to sell over 13 Million tickets at $15 a piece to hit that same number. And that's on HBO Max alone, not even counting that it would probably still hit Amazon at $19.99 (which WB/Legendary would pocket 80%) plus theaters too on top of all this. And remember: the "you must hit 2.5x the budget" rule does not apply to streaming. If the budget is $200M, then that's the finish line.

How, exactly, is WB supposed to lose money in this scenario?

If Godzilla vs Kong goes to VoD I would suggest the usual spots like amazon and google. HBO Max would net them even less that normal.

At least with Disney Plus you can watch on Roku and Firestick.

Again, HBO Max has over 36 Million subscribers. Of course the movie will hit Amazon and Google Play and all the other usual suspects, but Warner Brothers is like Disney in that HBO Max has more than enough subscribers to make a ton of money. Just a quarter of HBO Max's subscribers ALONE would make GvK the highest grossing MonsterVerse movie BEFORE you even start talking about the other platforms. This is why the theaters have been fighting tooth and nail to prevent the studios from doing this, everyone knows the studios make more money this way. Just, nobody wanted to be the first to try.

[SoggyNoodles2016]

How, exactly, is WB supposed to lose money in this scenario?

Again, HBO Max has over 36 Million subscribers. Of course the movie will hit Amazon and Google Play and all the other usual suspects, but Warner Brothers is

You want to know why its a bad idea? Ok.

1. There is no confirmation being watched by subscribers = money. Notice how of all the big blockbusters that went straight to VOD, NONE of them went on subscription only places like Netflix?
2. Look at what went straight to VOD. How many are films that are for niche audiences and costed about 20, 30 mil and how many are 500 million dollar worth blockbusters? I'll answer for you, its the later.
3. The whole reason Universal made insane money on Trolls on VOD was they charged to watch it and DIDN'T let you keep it. So 3-year olds BEGGING to watch Trolls again had to have mom and dad drop $20 again and again to pay. It wasn't the success of VOD streaming, it was charging in a way that meant more rewatches meant profit for a film with an audience that would want to watch it a lot.
4. If GVK comes to HBO Max, what's stopping someone from getting a free trial, watching it and ignoring it?
5. If GVK comes to HBO Max and they charge money for it like Mulan, who's to say people aren't gonna say the price is ridiculous and just not watch it?
6. Paying for a blockbuster also includes marketing and merchandise. A quarter of HBO Max viewers might pay ba ck some of the budget but what about licensing for Playmates? Or to shirt companies?
7. Let's be honest. Are people REALLY guaranteed to watch Godzilla vs Kong just because its on HBO Max? Because if they don't, everything I said in the last point times 10.
And the big one,


8. GVK'S POST PRODUCTION IS NOTDONE.

The movie is NOT ready to be released even IF theaters are open. Or should they rush effects, edting and score just to shove it on a subscription network that as NSZ pointed out, isn't on most platforms?

In short, I'm glad no one here is an executive

[GodzillaFan1990's]

*Cough*Drive-in theaters*Cough*

Just saying. There's a reason they've been making a comeback lately. Clearly this virus is here to stay and become the new common cold/flu regardless of a vaccine being eventually developed or not and masks potentially becoming the new norm.

[SoggyNoodles2016]

*Cough*Drive-in theaters*Cough*

There are not enough drive in theaters in this country to make releasing GVK to them a viable option. There's not enough drive ins for ANY film to be released exclusively to drive ins and make a profit.

All the drive ins are doing is replaying films that already came out, nothing new is being shown.

Clearly this virus is here to stay and become the new common cold/flu regardless of a vaccine being eventually developed or not and masks potentially becoming the new norm.

Masks are gonna be the norm for a while but this is not a new flu. The flu doesn't leave lasting medical issues once its gone or hospitalize nearly everyone who gets it.

[GodzillaFan1990's]

Masks are gonna be the norm for a while but this is not a new flu. The flu doesn't leave lasting medical issues once its gone or hospitalize nearly everyone who gets it.

What I meant by that its another virus we'll be dealing with years to come every year as with those two until a vaccine is potentially created.

[SoggyNoodles2016]

Masks are gonna be the norm for a while but this is not a new flu. The flu doesn't leave lasting medical issues once its gone or hospitalize nearly everyone who gets it.

What I meant by that its another virus we'll be dealing with years to come every year as with those two until a vaccine is potentially created.

And I'm saying you're drastically downplaying the effects this thing has. It is not something we can deal with year after year.

[GodzillaFan1990's]

*Cough*Drive-in theaters*Cough*

There are not enough drive in theaters in this country to make releasing GVK to them a viable option. There's not enough drive ins for ANY film to be released exclusively to drive ins and make a profit.

All the drive ins are doing is replaying films that already came out, nothing new is being shown.

Say hypothetically nothing changes. Within a few years we could see drive-in theaters replacing them and more being built around the world. This is unlikely to happen yes but a possibility.

And I'm saying you're drastically downplaying the effects this thing has. It is not something we can deal with year after year.

And I'm aware of the effects it has. I probably should have worded it a little better. My bad. The fact remains though, like any virus, it'll never go away unless we put a lot of effort into it as we did with smallpox.

But let's stop there, this isn't the thread to talk about the virus.

[mikelcho]

I just thought of something: why not release Godzilla vs. Kong direct-to-home video and sell it in the stores? It may not be the theaters, but at least it's better than nothing (in fact, by now, anything is better than nothing at this rate).

This way, the film can be seen in the privacy of our own homes! Everyone wins!

Because physical media makes pennies compared to theatrical releases.

Well, they've got to do something or we'll have nothing.

[_JNavs_]

I just thought of something: why not release Godzilla vs. Kong direct-to-home video and sell it in the stores? It may not be the theaters, but at least it's better than nothing (in fact, by now, anything is better than nothing at this rate).

This way, the film can be seen in the privacy of our own homes! Everyone wins!

Because physical media makes pennies compared to theatrical releases.

Well, they've got to do something or we'll have nothing.

Or just release the movie in theaters when the time is right so they make hundreds of millions? What?

[mikelcho]

I just thought of something: why not release Godzilla vs. Kong direct-to-home video and sell it in the stores? It may not be the theaters, but at least it's better than nothing (in fact, by now, anything is better than nothing at this rate).

This way, the film can be seen in the privacy of our own homes! Everyone wins!

Because physical media makes pennies compared to theatrical releases.

Plus there’s much more money in vod than physical copies.

Note I didn’t realize hbo max wasn’t so available.

Maybe there is, but some people (my family included) don't have VOD and I've already got three DVD/Blu-ray combos of the first three Monsterverse films (one of them is the Target exclusive version of Godzilla (2014), and believe me, finding that one wasn't easy, especially for a reasonable price).

In other words, I'd like to finish off this storyline and get the DVD/Blu-ray combo of Godzilla vs. Kong while I'm still alive, and I want to do both of them yesterday. This has gone on far enough as far as I'm concerned. It's just a matter of finishing up post-production and releasing it. How much post-production has to be done (is it a quarter left? A half? Three quarters? What?) and what are they waiting for, the next Ice Age to start? This is just so frustrating and the suspense is killing me! There's got to be a way to do this so that everyone's happy!

Anyone out there have any more bright ideas? Mine is the only one I could think of, to tell you the truth.

[GodzillaFan1990's]

Or just release the movie in theaters when the time is right so they make hundreds of millions? What?

Which for all we know could be a few years from now.

[mikelcho]

Or just release the movie in theaters when the time is right so they make hundreds of millions? What?

Which for all we know could be a few years from now.

Yeah, and by that time, no one'll even notice - or care.

[_JNavs_]

I wasn't even alive during the Showa and Heisei eras, when sequels took more than ONE YEAR to release, and i can tell you guys are overdramatizing this whole bit.

"We're all gonna die by the time this movie comes out UggGhhhHhHHhh just throw it on demand already so i can move on with my life"

KOTM dropped in 2019, it's mid 2020, calm down, the world isn't ending, you're not dying, and the film isn't delayed for the rest of eternity.

Added in 57 seconds:

Or just release the movie in theaters when the time is right so they make hundreds of millions? What?

Which for all we know could be a few years from now.

Yeah, and by that time, no one'll even notice - or care.

Again, KING OF THE MONSTERS, dropped in 2019. LAST YEAR.

You're really worried because the sequel to that film didn't come out the very next year???

[UltramanGoji]

and what are they waiting for, the next Ice Age to start?

They're waiting on the global fucking pandemic, that's currently causing thousands of people daily to fucking die, to y'know stop being a global fucking pandemic.

[_JNavs_]

"No one will even notice or care"


Huh? Because of a Year's delay?

[miguelnuva]

If the virus doesn't improve he makes a point. A some point some money is going to be better than no money especially if Mulan is a sucess.

I don't see this movie sitting completely past 2021, playmates, Toho and even the comic division needs to get their money on top of Legendary and WB.

I hope the pandemic can be brought under control and every thing gets back on track but personally I don't see too many more delays happening one way or another.

[mikelcho]

Let's just say that, at the very least, I'd like to be able to get a DVD/Blu-ray combo of Godzilla vs. Kong so that, even if I don't get to see it in theaters, I can finish the current storyline and watch it whenever I like along with the other three films I've already got in the same format (of which the first film was the Target exclusive version (and believe me, as I said above, getting that one wasn't easy, especially for a reasonable price)).

[The Octopus]

We're getting some wide release movies this weekend. Last week with Unhinged we had our first wide release movie (1000+ Theaters) since March and now three more films will get the wide release treatment. The New Mutants at over 2400 theaters, as well as Bill and Ted Face the Music along with The Personal History of David Copperfield will each play in over 1000 theaters.

[mikelcho]

I mentioned this before, but haven't got an answer yet.

How much post-production on Godzilla vs. Kong has been done as of now? Is it one quarter, one half, three quarters, what? I'd like to know has much progress has been made.

[Terasawa]

I think about 15/28ths.